On Aug. 18, 2025, ETF and mutual fund manager VanEck released a new report studying Bitcoin price trends between mid-July and mid-August. VanEck analyst Nathan Frankovitz and Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel predict that BTC will reach $180,000 by the end of the year, while noting discrepancies in Bitcoin mining companies’ market performance and declining mNAV of Digital Asset Treasuries.
Summary
- VanEck report suggests that Bitcoin price will reach $180,000 by the end of 2025.
- The report attributes the decline in Bitcoin treasury companies’ mNAV to lower Bitcoin volatility and claims mNAV will continue to drop in the future.
- The U.S. dominance in Bitcoin mining reaches a record high at 31%.
- Bitcoin ordinals minting doubles if compared to 2024, while Bitcoin Core is removing the arbitrary data limit from the block, clearing the way for more ordinals.
30-day market trends
On Aug. 13, 2025, Bitcoin reached a new record-breaking price. While it was only several hundred dollars above July’s peak price, VanEck notes that the signals coming from the Bitcoin futures markets were more bullish. The CME basis funding rates reached 9%, the highest figure in six months.
The options market saw a notable increase in the call/put ratio, which reached 3.21x, signaling the growing demand for BTC. According to VanEck, 3.21x is the highest call/put rate since June 2024. Call premiums reached $792 million, which is a 37% rise compared to the previous 30-day period.
One of the factors shaping the uptrend was growing demand from corporations. According to VanEck, in July, Exchange-traded products (mostly ETFs) and DATs acquired 54,000 BTC and 72,000 BTC, respectively. In the three months of 2025 Q2, DATs purchased only 131,355 BTC, which indicates July’s increase in buying pressure coming from digital asset treasuries.
VanEck named Ethereum’s popularity spike as the main reason for the decline in Bitcoin’s market dominance from 64.5% to 59.7%. Bitcoin network transactions reached 12.9 million, which is the highest rate since November 2024. Median fees dropped by 13%.
The graph attached to the VanEck report showcases a spike in total transfer volume. It reached $77,727,657,201, making a 34% increase compared to the previous 30-day period or a 60% change over 365 days.
Bitcoin mining
In August, mining hashrate reached a record-high rate of 902 EH/s. The revenue per EH/s is $59,400, the highest in eight months. The volume of BTC sent by miners to exchanges has nearly doubled since August 2024, but grew only 16% compared to mid-July of this year.
As for mining companies’ equities, the results are split. Applied Digital Corporation’s equity (APLD) is up 54%, Bitfarms (BITF) is up 16%, while most of their competitors saw growth below 10% or dropped in price. VanEck names a 22% drop in Cipher Mining Inc.’s stock (CIFR) price and a 4% decline in the 13-mining-company index tracked by the report authors. In August, U.S.-based mining operations reached a record share of 31%.
Bitcoin treasuries
VanEck evaluated the amount of Bitcoin held on public treasury companies’ balance sheets at 951,000. The authors of the report point to the decline in DATs’ stock performance. They point out that in July, the mNAVs of these companies have been going down.
It means that for these companies, the share of net asset value declines relative to their liabilities. VanEck gives three examples: mNAVs are down for MSTR (-16%), for MTPLF (-62%), and for SMLR (-12%). As Bitcoin volatility settles, it becomes harder for DATs to issue convertible debt to acquire more BTC.
Bitcoin ordinals spike
Another notable trend is the 43% 30-day growth of ordinals minted on the Bitcoin blockchain. The total amount of ordinals minted in 30 days amounts to 109,779. Compared to August of 2024, this amount has grown by 120%.
This surge in minting Bitcoin blockchain-based images and other non-monetary data reflects the ongoing debate over the idea of removing the 83-byte-per-block limit for arbitrary information. The implementation removing the limit will come into effect for Bitcoin Core nodes in October, allowing for more ordinals per block, which can possibly slow down monetary transactions.
Predictions
Looking at the near future, VanEck points to the possibility of a volatility spike, which in turn can amplify price swings via dealer hedging. VanEck expects a further decline in DATs’ mNAVs as they will have limited ability to raise capital due to a long period of low volatility. While the report authors provide both bearish and bullish scenarios, they claim that by year-end, Bitcoin will reach $180,000.
In December 2024, Matt Sigel was predicting that Bitcoin would reach $180,000 in the first quarter of 2025 before going through a 30% correction. In fact, the Q1 peak was well below $110,000. April saw a short-term 25% drop. Given that the current Bitcoin price is much higher than the December 2024 price, the $180,000 bet is considerably less bullish.
