A recent dip in Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply may be flashing early warning signs of a potential market top, according to on-chain data from Glassnode.
In a May 14 post on X, the analytics firm noted that LTH supply, which includes wallets holding Bitcoin (BTC) for at least 155 days, peaked at 14.29 million BTC after rising from 13.66 million BTC in mid-March. However, that figure has recently declined for the second time this month.
Meanwhile, LTH spending, which tracks coins moving out of long-held wallets, has increased to 0.43, a level that historically tends to front-run local tops in price.
Some analysts agree that Bitcoin may be headed for a reversal. WhaleWire analyst Jacob King argued that Bitcoin is forming a double top, a traditional pattern that has signaled the end of every significant bull cycle, in a May 15 post shared with his 520,000 followers on X.
King claims that insider manipulation and Tether inflows are artificially maintaining the rally rather than it being driven by natural demand. He cautioned that the market is about to crash and is dangerously overvalued.
After a 32% decline earlier this year, Bitcoin saw a significant rebound, rising from about $94,000 at the beginning of May to a high of $105,747 on May 12. Institutional players have been driving this rebound. On May 12 alone, Strategy added $1.34 billion worth of BTC, bringing its holdings to nearly 569,000 BTC.
Japan’s Metaplanet also increased its stash by 1,241 BTC, now totaling to 6,796 BTC. Bitcoin spot ETFs, on the other hand, have attracted $1.94 billion in net inflows over the past month, according to SoSoValue data.
Despite potential short-term retracements, particularly if retail investors begin to capitulate, the broader picture remains bullish. According to Santiment, institutions now hold around 68% of the total supply, with little sign of selling.
The recent data suggests a potential short-term pullback if retail sentiment weakens. However, since institutions are still buying Bitcoin and ETFs are purchasing about 5,000 BTC every day, Bitcoin might soon find support, paving the way for more growth after profit-taking has subsided.
