Gold prices spiked on August 22, 2025, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s much-awaited address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Powell’s comments, which hinted at a possible September interest rate decrease because of a changing economy and growing labor market concerns, caused the price of gold to spike sharply.
Gold recovered important technical levels and rose by about 1% to almost $3,370 an ounce as the U.S. currency declined and Treasury yields decreased. A renewed emphasis on gold as a safe-haven asset in the face of economic uncertainty was made possible by this bullish momentum, which was fueled by market expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve policy.
Summary
- As speculation of a potential September rate decrease undermined the USD and Treasury yields, Powell’s Jackson Hole speech helped gold prices rise, bringing XAUUSD to almost $3,370/oz.
- The GDP, unemployment claims, and core PCE data this week will be the main drivers of volatility; higher data will put pressure on gold, while lower data will favor additional upside.
- Technical outlook: Higher timeframes continue to support a bullish rise into $3,440–$3,500; the buy zone is located between $3352 and 3340, with resistance between $3381 and 3402.
- The bias is still optimistic, and dip-buying is advised; if the data is dovish, there is a chance for a breakout to a new all-time high above $3,500.
The bias in gold for this week is buy with potential targets of $3440 and even a new ATH above $3500!. With that in mind, let’s discuss the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in this XAUUSD weekly forecast from August 25th to August 29th, 2025.
Key economic events of this week
Some significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week that are expected to impact XAUUSD.
Aug 28 – Prelim GDP q/q (3.1% vs. 3.0%)
Strong economic development would be reflected in a higher GDP print, which would pressure gold and strengthen the USD. However, gold’s fall may be limited if markets believe growth is peaking.
Aug 28 – Unemployment Claims (231K vs. 235K)
A strong labor market is shown by lower claims, which supports Fed hawkishness and depresses gold prices. A sudden increase would be in favor of gold.
Aug 29 – Core PCE Price Index m/m
The Fed favors this inflation indicator. While milder data would lead to a bullish surge in gold, a hotter-than-expected reading would damage the metal as higher-for-longer rates are factored in.
Overall Gold outlook
The combination of inflation, labor, and growth statistics this week may keep gold erratic. A mild PCE might swiftly turn sentiment optimistic, while strong GDP and jobs figures make it pessimistic.
Gold HTF Overview
As mentioned in the previous XAUUSD weekly forecast, gold is still showing momentum to the upside liquidity.
We can expect the move to continue towards $3440, and eventually towards a test of the previous ATH of $3500 as well.
Gold forecast for August 18th to August 22nd, 2025
In the 4h timeframe, the $3352-$3340 area is a good buy zone for gold as it is the breaker block and also the POC zone, making it a high probability bounce area for XAUUSD.
In the 4h timeframe, a major level for selling gold is starting from $3388-3402 due to the big range POC and the 4h supply for gold.
Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation
To conclude, gold can give both buys and sells this week; however, buys are strongly preferred over sells. Lower time frames are suggesting sells, while higher time frames are still favoring a buy position in gold.
Resistance Levels
- $3381-3402 – Range POC and 4h supply
Support Levels
- $3352-3340 – POC and 4h breaker block
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
