Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index has stayed below zero for 51 consecutive days, with the latest reading at −0.10% as the US exchange continues to price BTC below Binance.
Summary
- 51 consecutive days of negative Coinbase premiums date back to Sept. 23, according to CoinGlass.
- The latest −0.10% reading is less negative than the dashboard’s 30-day average of −0.14%.
- US Bitcoin ETF withdrawals and analysts’ demand concerns provide separate evidence of cautious buying.
- A negative exchange premium alone does not establish that institutional investors are withdrawing funds.
According to CoinGlass data, the negative run began on Sept. 23, with its dashboard showing an annual average premium of −0.06%. Both the latest reading and the monthly average sit below that annual figure.
The index compares Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase’s BTC-USD market with its price on Binance’s BTC-USDT market. CoinGlass describes the measure as a way to observe buying and selling pressure in the US market relative to global markets.
Bitcoin’s discount persists despite a smaller latest gap
At −0.10%, the latest premium is 0.04 percentage points above the 30-day average of −0.14%, calculated from the dashboard figures. Bitcoin therefore remains cheaper on Coinbase in the comparison, although the current discount is smaller than the average recorded over the past month.
Compared with the annual average of −0.06%, the latest reading is 0.04 percentage points lower. The monthly average is 0.08 percentage points below the annual figure, placing the recent period further into negative territory than the longer reference window.
CoinGlass’s one-year Z-score stands at −0.95, which the dashboard labels within its normal range. The negative premium streak and the statistical reading describe different features of the data: one counts consecutive negative days, while the other measures the reading against its historical distribution.
Neither the percentage discount nor the duration identifies the buyers and sellers behind individual transactions. The measure records a price difference between two markets, without providing a dollar total for money entering or leaving institutional portfolios.
US Bitcoin ETFs record separate withdrawals
US investment products have reported withdrawals during the same period. As crypto.news previously reported, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded five consecutive outflow sessions through Nov. 11, losing roughly $1.44 billion across that stretch.
SoSoValue figures cited in the coverage put Nov. 11 net withdrawals at $299.9 million. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust accounted for $269.73 million, while Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust lost $39.13 million.
Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin Trust attracted $8.96 million, partially offsetting the withdrawals from those two funds. The remaining products recorded no net movement during the session, according to the same dataset.
Despite the recent outflows, cumulative net inflows since the funds launched in January 2024 stood at $55.1 billion in that report. Combined net assets totaled $93.7 billion, with BlackRock’s fund holding $58.71 billion.
ETF subscriptions and redemptions measure activity in investment products. The Coinbase premium measures relative exchange pricing; neither dataset specifies the identity or motivation of every investor involved.
Bitfinex points to weak spot buying and persistent leverage
In a Nov. 11 assessment, Bitfinex analysts described weak spot buying alongside futures positions that continued growing while Bitcoin fell. Their figures put futures open interest at 701,900 BTC, up 3.3% between Nov. 8 and Nov. 11, while the price declined 2.6%.
Following the US inflation release, open interest fell just 0.2% despite approximately $729 million in liquidations. Bitfinex interpreted the limited change as evidence that traders were replacing closed positions almost immediately.
The analysts identified $75,717 as the average purchase price of coins held for fewer than 155 days. They estimated that 1.6 million BTC purchased between $75,000 and $80,000 was underwater, leaving recent buyers exposed to losses.
In their assessment, holders could sell into rallies approaching their purchase prices until fresh spot demand returns.
Options investors continue paying for protection
Earlier comments on buying demand from Bitget Wallet Research tied a sustained recovery to positive ETF flows and more balanced derivatives positioning. The analysts said the selloff had removed some speculative excess, while fresh demand remained insufficient.
CoinShares managing director Marc des Ligneris described continued defensive positioning in separate comments published Nov. 10. His assessment focused on one-month options skew, using a convention in which positive readings indicate investors paying more for downside protection through puts than for upside exposure through calls.
“This time it hasn’t held so far: skew has risen again, showing that investors are still paying up to hedge,” des Ligneris said.
