Has Pi Network price rally lost steam as open interest sinks?

Pi Network price has fallen to $0.090 after its Protocol v25 launch triggered profit-taking, erased much of last week’s 39% rally, and returned sentiment to fear.

According to data from crypto.news, Pi Network (PI) price briefly reached $0.102 on July 20 after rebounding from its July 14 record low near $0.0704. Buyers failed to hold the token above $0.10, however, and the subsequent retreat left late entrants exposed as traders unwound positions accumulated before the network upgrade.

Protocol v25 went live on July 22 with BN254 cryptography and Poseidon hashing, which give developers new tools for privacy-preserving smart contracts and zero-knowledge applications. The Pi Core Team described the update as primarily focused on “improving network stability and reliability,” but the launch produced no immediate increase in application usage or demand for PI.

Supply pressure has added another obstacle. PiScan data previously showed about 127.5 million PI scheduled for release over 30 days, or an average of 4.25 million tokens each day. Miners who received tokens over several years can sell migrated balances, leaving every recovery dependent on enough demand to absorb the additional circulating supply.

Protocol v25 has turned into a sell-the-news event

Derivatives traders have reduced exposure since the rally stalled. According to CoinAnk data, PI futures open interest has dropped to roughly $9.6 million from a recent peak of $12.1 million. The decline shows that positions are being closed rather than replaced with fresh leveraged bets.

Open interest had risen from $9.11 million to $10.73 million during the first stage of the rebound, according to an earlier crypto.news report. It remained far below the $28 million recorded at the start of June and the $35 million reached during May’s rally, leaving PI without the derivatives participation needed for a leverage-led breakout.

Institutional demand has also remained scarce. PI lacks the spot exchange-traded products, corporate treasury purchases and deep derivatives markets available to larger cryptocurrencies. Pi Network Ventures announced a $100 million ecosystem fund in May 2025, but a crypto.news review found only one publicly disclosed investment of an unspecified size, limiting its measurable effect on token demand.

Macroeconomic conditions have meanwhile turned hostile for speculative altcoins. Brent crude climbed to $98 per barrel on July 23 as Middle East tensions expanded into the Red Sea, while traders raised the probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve hike in July to 35% from 12% a week earlier. Odds of a September increase reached 55%, according to CME FedWatch data.

Technology shares added to the pressure after Alphabet’s higher capital-spending plans worried investors and Tesla reported negative quarterly free cash flow for the first time in more than two years. Commenting on the earnings, eToro global market strategist Lale Akoner noted:

“Alphabet is beginning to show that connection. Tesla still needs to prove that its ambitious projects can move from technological promise to commercial returns.”

Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.28% before Thursday’s open, while two-year Treasury yields reached a 17-month high. Higher yields raise the cost of holding assets without cash flows and can draw liquidity away from small-cap tokens whose demand comes mainly from retail speculation.

PI’s daily chart has kept the long-term downtrend intact. Price remains below the Supertrend barrier at $0.0999, and the indicator will retain its bearish reading unless buyers reclaim that level on a daily closing basis. Chaikin Money Flow stands at minus 0.17, showing that selling volume has exceeded buying volume during the latest sessions.

The 4-hour chart has formed a descending triangle after PI’s rejection above $0.10. Lower highs have compressed price against horizontal support at $0.0895, while the pattern’s upper boundary now crosses the $0.092–$0.093 area. A close above that boundary would weaken the setup and give buyers another chance to challenge $0.10.

Momentum has also deteriorated. The 4-hour RSI has slipped to 49.14 and fallen below its moving average at 51.86. MACD has completed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line at 0.0005 beneath the signal line at 0.0010 and the histogram at minus 0.0006.

A break below $0.0895 would expose deeper losses

PI’s primary downside trigger sits at the triangle floor near $0.0895. A confirmed 4-hour close below that level would complete the bearish pattern and expose $0.085, followed by the July consolidation zone between $0.080 and $0.075. The record low near $0.0704 would become the final major support if selling accelerates.

A renewed oil surge, another rise in Treasury yields, or a hawkish Federal Reserve decision could deepen the risk-off move. Continuous token releases would add asset-specific pressure, particularly if open interest and spot volume continue to decline after the upgrade.

The bearish case would lose force if PI closes above $0.10, converts the Supertrend into support and attracts rising spot volume alongside higher open interest. Until those conditions appear, Protocol v25 remains a technical improvement whose market impact has not yet offset token dilution or the long-term downtrend.