Crypto’s next altseason may produce fewer winners as institutional investors direct more capital toward a limited group of tokens, according to Wintermute’s July 30 over-the-counter flow report.
Summary
- 72% of Wintermute’s spot OTC flow came from institutions during the first half of 2026.
- Institutional token coverage rose 24%, while retail clients expanded their traded universe by 76% overall.
- Altcoin options notional rose roughly 3.4 times as institutions increasingly pursued yield strategies through derivatives.
The market maker said institutional clients generated a record 72% of spot flow across all tokens on its OTC desk during the first half of 2026. Their share rose from 61% in the second half of 2025 and 59% in the first half of that year.
The figures come from Wintermute’s proprietary activity and do not represent the entire crypto market. However, recent exchange, derivatives and market-cap data point to a similar concentration of capital among larger assets.
Wintermute data show institutions dominating OTC flow
Institutional clients became the largest source of spot activity on Wintermute’s desk while retail participation remained subdued. The company said the shift made institutional positioning large enough to shape liquidity, token performance and market direction.
The change builds on an earlier divide. Wintermute’s first-half 2025 report found that institutions concentrated mainly on Bitcoin and Ether, while retail clients traded a wider range of smaller tokens. OTC volume also grew faster than centralized-exchange activity as larger investors sought discreet execution.
As crypto.news reported, Bitcoin and Ether represented 67% of institutional allocations recorded by Wintermute in H1 2025. Retail clients placed only 37% of their activity in the two assets.
Wintermute found that the number of unique tokens traded by institutional counterparties increased by only 24% between H1 2024 and H1 2026. Retail clients expanded their traded universe by 76% during the same period.
Institutional interest also disappeared faster after sharp market moves. Activity from large counterparties typically returned to normal about one day after a token experienced a surge in price and volume. Retail activity remained elevated for around three days.
That difference suggests institutional investors may treat many altcoin moves as short-term trading opportunities rather than the beginning of lasting portfolio allocations. Wintermute said the result is liquidity concentrating in selected assets while the market’s long tail becomes thinner.
Separate exchange data support that pattern. Kaiko found that the ten largest altcoins accounted for 63% of altcoin trading volume in 2025, up from about 50% several months earlier. The firm also found weaker demand and declining activity among smaller tokens.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju reached a similar conclusion in June. He said Bitcoin-to-altcoin rotation had “basically disappeared,” citing BTC-denominated altcoin volume near its weakest level since 2021. His statement describes a possible structural change, not proof that broad altcoin rallies can never return.
Derivatives replace part of institutional spot demand
Wintermute also reported a roughly 3.4-fold increase in altcoin options notional from the second half of 2025. Institutions primarily used the instruments for yield strategies rather than simple directional bets on higher prices.
Options and contracts for difference allow investors to gain exposure, hedge risk or earn premiums without buying the underlying token in the spot market. As a result, growing derivatives activity does not always create the same direct demand that a spot purchase would produce.
Wintermute had already observed this change during 2025, when options volumes and trade counts more than doubled. Systematic yield and risk-management strategies replaced one-off directional trades as the main source of flow.
The firm expanded its options-based yield tools in April to cover more than 50 digital assets. It said institutional clients were increasingly seeking electronic pricing for covered-call and other income strategies across both major cryptocurrencies and altcoins.
Recent market data still point to selective demand
Current positioning has not confirmed a broad altseason. Coinbase’s July market report found that altcoin open-interest dominance remained in a depressed range of about 0.6 to 0.7. It described the market as majors-led, with speculative appetite contracting rather than spreading across smaller assets.
Wintermute’s weekly observations also remained cautious. On July 6, the firm said a small group of tokens rallied around individual catalysts, but the wider altcoin market remained selective and weaker. Quotes on its desk leaned toward profit-taking instead of new positioning.
By the week ending July 21, Bitcoin gained 1.46% and Ether rose 3.64%, while altcoins collectively declined 0.41%, according to Wintermute. That performance offered another example of major assets outperforming the broader token market.
Crypto.news reported that 40% of altcoins remained near record lows in early July. The Altcoin Season Index stood near 43, below the level of 75 commonly used to identify a broad altseason.
What could shape the next altcoin season
Wintermute’s report does not rule out strong gains in individual tokens. Instead, it indicates that future rallies may depend more heavily on project-specific revenue, product adoption, institutional access and independent liquidity.
The firm said “any altcoin rally is becoming narrower and more idiosyncratic.” That remains an outlook based on its trading data rather than a guaranteed market outcome.
A broader altseason would likely require sustained spot buying, stronger retail participation and capital spreading beyond Bitcoin, Ether and a small group of established tokens. Traders will also watch whether stablecoin inflows and derivatives positioning translate into demand for the underlying assets.
