Bitcoin has gained roughly 22% over the past month, but Nansen analyst Nicolai Søndergaard has warned that weak spot flows, divided whale positions, and ETF withdrawals have yet to confirm a new bull market.
Summary
- Bitcoin remains below its seven-day average despite maintaining positive daily and weekly trends.
- Nansen tracked about 3,700 BTC in net exchange inflows from labelled entities over the past week.
- Large Hyperliquid whales remain heavily short as open interest falls and taker selling continues.
- Bitcoin must hold $77,400–$77,650 before another test of the $80,000 resistance level.
Bitcoin’s 22% recovery lacks spot confirmation
Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard told crypto.news that Bitcoin’s market structure has improved after its 22% monthly recovery, though several flow indicators have stopped him from declaring the start of a confirmed bull phase.
Positive daily and weekly trends suggest Bitcoin has moved past the weakest part of its previous decline, according to the analyst. More recent data have produced a less convincing picture, with BTC trading below its seven-day average while short-term momentum remains weak.
“The recovery is real, but spot flows haven’t confirmed the bull market yet,” Søndergaard said.
Labelled entities tracked by Nansen sent a net 3,700 BTC to exchanges during the past week. Because exchange deposits can precede sales, the analyst included the increase among the factors limiting his confidence in the rally, although transfers to trading platforms do not always lead to immediate selling.
US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds also recorded around $236 million in withdrawals in the latest reading cited by Søndergaard. The reversal followed a period of stronger institutional activity during August, when ETF demand supported Bitcoin’s advance from below $65,000 to above $80,000.
As previously reported by crypto.news, Bitcoin gained approximately 24% in August, delivering its strongest performance for the month since 2017. US spot ETFs attracted $1.92 billion during their strongest weekly run since October 2025, while $6.55 billion in short liquidations accumulated across two weeks.
The later outflow does not erase the earlier buying, but Søndergaard said the market still needs consistent spot demand before the recovery can qualify as a lasting cycle turn.
“That combination suggests the recovery still lacks consistent spot-flow confirmation,” he said, referring to ETF withdrawals, exchange deposits and weaker short-term momentum.
Whale positions leave Bitcoin exposed in both directions
Large Bitcoin traders have not adopted one clear position during the recovery, according to Nansen’s data. Whales tracked across the firm’s monitored addresses remain slightly net long, while accounts trading large notional amounts on Hyperliquid hold heavy short exposure.
Funding rates remain positive but moderate, indicating that traders holding long perpetual-futures positions are paying shorts without reaching the elevated levels commonly associated with an overcrowded trade. At the same time, declining open interest shows that total derivatives exposure has contracted, while taker-flow data point to continued market selling.
According to Søndergaard, the combination creates the conditions for a short-covering bounce because lower-timeframe momentum has already entered oversold territory. A price increase could force bearish traders to close positions by purchasing Bitcoin, adding fuel to an advance even without an immediate increase in spot buying.
Such a move would not automatically confirm a breakout, he added, because leverage-driven buying can fade after short positions have been closed.
Long traders face a separate risk if Bitcoin loses $76,400, which the analyst identified as an important downside level. A break below it could pressure leveraged bullish positions and weaken the local-bottom case.
Bitcoin recently traded near $76,500 after retreating from levels above $81,000. A recent market assessment identified $76,350 as a nearby support area, with deeper downside levels around $74,500 and $72,000 if sellers regain control.
Although both analyses place support in a similar region, Søndergaard’s test also depends on the type of demand behind any rebound. Nansen would view stronger spot volume differently from a rise led mainly by perpetual futures and forced position closures.
Bitcoin’s $80K test requires stronger ETF demand
For the recovery to become more durable, Bitcoin must first reclaim and hold the $77,400–$77,650 range, according to Søndergaard. A successful move through that area would bring the $80,000 level back into focus after several failed attempts to remain above it.
Stronger spot volume and improving ETF flows would provide the confirmation the analyst is seeking. Funding would also need to remain moderate as open interest expands gradually, a combination that would show traders are adding exposure without creating an immediate leverage imbalance.
“If that happens while funding stays moderate and open interest grows gradually, I would see the recovery as becoming more durable and expect broader participation across crypto.”
A renewed rejection at $80,000 would produce a different signal if exchange inflows remained elevated and derivatives exposure rebuilt without fresh spot demand. Under that scenario, Søndergaard would consider the rally increasingly dependent on leverage and vulnerable to another correction.
Strategy has taken a more aggressive position despite the unresolved market signals. The company purchased 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million between Aug. 24 and Aug. 30, ending a pause of more than two months.
According to an Aug. 31 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Strategy paid an average of $80,318 per coin, including fees. The transaction increased its holdings to 845,050 BTC, acquired for $63.73 billion at an average cost of $75,412.
Strategy funded the purchase through its at-the-market common-stock program, selling more than 4.5 million MSTR shares for $602.8 million in net proceeds. Of the remaining capital, the company used $151.8 million to repurchase STRC preferred shares, allocated $50.7 million to STRC dividends, and added $30 million to unrestricted dollar cash.
Chief Executive Phong Le has said financing costs, rather than Bitcoin’s trading price alone, determine the company’s purchase decisions. Speaking as Bitcoin approached $80,000, Le described the market as a “pretty heavy bull market” and said Strategy intended to keep buying regardless of price.
US jobs and Treasury yields add another test
Macroeconomic conditions have also limited Nansen’s confidence, with the US 10-year Treasury yield trading near 4.80% as rising oil prices and inflation concerns pushed bond yields higher.
Higher real yields increase the return available from inflation-adjusted government debt, which can reduce demand for assets that do not generate income. Søndergaard cited the yield environment as one of the constraints facing Bitcoin, alongside stablecoin supply that Nansen measured at roughly $310 billion with little recent growth.
Federal Reserve policy expectations have moved toward another rate increase following Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address. After his remarks, Bitcoin fell from above $80,000 to around $79,200, while prediction-market traders raised the estimated probability of a 2026 increase to 68%, according to an earlier market report.
Fresh labor data have since complicated the outlook. ADP reported that US private employers added 38,000 jobs in August, below economists’ forecasts and down from a revised 46,000 in July. Manufacturing lost 17,000 positions, while professional and business services shed 16,000.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish the official August employment report on Sept. 4 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, including nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, and wage-growth data.
